GBP/USD under pressure, markets see less than one-third chance of BoE cut today

The BoE’s policy decision today is the central focus for the markets, with consensus expecting the Bank Rate to remain unchanged at 4.00%. However, the outcome is far from certain. While most economists expect a hold, market pricing implies less than a one-third chance of a 25 bps cut, reflecting lingering uncertainty over how dovish the committee might lean. Indeed, some forecasters, including Goldman Sachs, are bracing for a narrow 5–4 vote in favor of a cut.

With the deep divisions within the Monetary Policy Committee, . BoEk’s voting record has become increasingly fractured: Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden and Chief Economist Huw Pill remain among the hawks, while Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor have consistently called for earlier easing. The stance of the remaining members, including Governor Andrew Bailey, will be key to how markets interpret the decision.

Adding complexity is the upcoming November 26 Budget from Chancellor Rachel Reeves, which is widely expected to deliver a large contractionary impulse to the economy. The timing puts the MPC in a difficult position — whether to act preemptively to cushion the blow or to hold off until fiscal details are clearer.

In the currency markets, Sterling remains vulnerable ahead of the decision. The pair’s break below its 55 W EMA (now at 1.3185) last week, followed by continued selling this week, suggests a medium-term top at 1.3787 may be in place. A dovish surprise today could deepen losses toward trendline support around 1.2770. Decisive break there likely indicate that the entire rebound from the 2022 low at 1.0351 has completed.