Bitcoin completes 81 days in consolidation as traders await clearer macro signals

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained locked in a tight trading range of $91,000 to $102,000 for the past 81 days, reflecting traders waiting for clearer macroeconomic signals before making decisive moves, according to Bitfinex.

The firm’s latest Alpha report highlighted that BTC has shown little directional momentum despite escalating global geopolitical tensions. Its weekly performance posted only a modest 4.3% peak-to-trough movement and closed with a slight 0.82% gain.

This period of stagnation has also impacted altcoins, many of which have struggled amid uncertainty. The broader altcoin market has significantly underperformed Bitcoin, with meme coins like PEPE suffering dramatic losses — declining 46.4% over the past month.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price stability suggests that capital flows away from altcoins and into the leading crypto, further reinforcing its role as the dominant digital asset.

Altcoins tank

The global altcoin market cap has dropped by $234 billion in just 14 days. Despite this downturn, Bitcoin has held relatively steady, signaling a growing divergence between the flagship crypto and the rest of the market. 

According to the report, this trend highlights Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with macroeconomic conditions and its maturation as a risk asset.

Another crucial indicator, the Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP), turned bearish on Feb. 15 for the first time since June 2024. This shift suggests that traders may be reducing their risk exposure, potentially leading to further downside pressure. 

However, the IFP remains above its 90-day moving average, leaving room for a potential market rebound.

Realized losses

Despite the choppy price action, Bitcoin investors have recorded some of the largest realized losses of the current bull market cycle.

Short-term holders (STHs) have been particularly affected. The cohort realized $520 million in losses, mirroring levels seen in previous market pullbacks.

Meanwhile, Long-term holders (LTHs) have continued to hold their positions, reinforcing the sentiment that Bitcoin’s consolidation phase is a natural correction within an ongoing bull market.

While bullish catalysts, such as Abu Dhabi’s investment in BlackRock’s Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF), have provided some support, traders remain wary.

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