Stock Brews Five Market Insights To Savor With Your Morning Coffee Today

Good morning, traders! Grab your first cup of coffee and let’s digest today’s market moves. While your morning brew was heating up, futures markets were already simmering with news of Trump’s steel tariffs, sending metal stocks soaring and gold breaking records. Here’s what you need to know before your second cup.

1. Your First Sip: Market Overview 

Pour yourself a strong one – you’ll need it for today’s market action. US stock futures dip as Trump formalizes 25% steel and aluminum tariffs set to take effect March 4. S&P 500 futures -0.3%, Dow futures -0.2%, Nasdaq futures -0.4%. The dollar holds gains, the 10-year Treasury yield +2 bps to 4.52%. Gold sets fresh record above $2,940/oz on haven demand. Oil rises from yearly lows on shrinking Russian output. Markets had brushed off the threat earlier but are now reacting to his concrete plans. Analysts remain uncertain whether the tariffs are a negotiation tactic or a lasting economic shift.

2. Today’s Rising and Falling Stars 

While you were grinding those coffee beans, the steel sector was crushing expectations. Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) +2.9% premarket after +18% Monday. Nucor (NUE) +2%, United States Steel (X) +1.6%. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) +8.7% surges ahead of FQ2 “business update”; faces Nasdaq delisting amid accounting issues. BP (BP) +0.9% as activist Elliott Management builds stake, seeks strategic changes. Phillips 66 (PSX) +3.7% with Elliott taking $2.5B+ stake, to push for operational improvements. DuPont (DD) +3.6% tops Q4 estimates with adj EPS $1.13 vs $0.98 expected.

Need a refill? The morning’s not so bright for everyone. Fluence Energy (FLNC) -36% slashes FY25 outlook on Australian contract delays. Harmonic (HLIT) -27% issues weak Q1 and FY25 forecasts. Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) -4.8% slides despite beating Q4 and guiding Q1 above consensus. Tesla (TSLA) -1% as Musk “distraction” fears rise on reported $97B OpenAI bid. Meta (META) -0.4% takes a breather after 16 sessions, 23% YTD surge to record highs.

3. Hot Stock Spotlight: Super Micro’s AI Tightrope Walk

Super Micro (SMCI) dips -4.7% ahead of its Q2 business update after the bell Tuesday as investors brace for clarity on delayed SEC filings and AI server demand.

Q4 Estimates (Dec 2024):

Outlook:

Bear Case (Accounting Chaos):

• Auditor Shuffle: Ernst & Young quit in October over “internal controls” concerns
• SEC Filing Delays: Missing 10-K/10-Q since June 2023
• Wedbush Warning: “Substantial unknowns” keep analysts sidelined

Bull Case (AI Server Demand):

• Nvidia Tailwinds: SMCI’s custom AI servers are tied to GPU giants like NVDA
• Hyperscale Orders: Cloud giants’ AI spending could fuel guidance beat
• Nasdaq Lifeline: Deadline extension signals progress toward compliance

4. Call Update: CLF Surge on Tariff Update

A nice pop from Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF), we were able to secure a buy entry on a market open retracement before the price climbed with a boost from the 25% Trump tariff execution, giving us a solid +8% gain for yesterday! Congratulations to our members taking these telegram and email trade calls! We keep winning even with the market tariff scares.

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5. Market Catalysts Today

Market Catalysts Today kicks off with 25% steel/aluminum duties starting March 4, with reciprocal tariffs expected Tuesday and Wednesday. The trade war heats up as Trump considers expanding tariffs to auto, semiconductor, and pharma sectors, while the EU promises swift countermeasures against any US tariff moves. Investors should mark their calendars for Powell’s testimony spanning Tuesday and Wednesday, with crucial CPI inflation data dropping midweek. 

The earnings lineup brings heavyweight reports from Coca-Cola, Shopify, DoorDash, Cisco, and Zillow, promising to add extra spice to the market menu.

Remember Tom Basso’s words as you start your day: “I think investment psychology is by far the more important element, followed by risk control, with the least important consideration being the question of where to buy and sell.”

Time to refill that cup and get trading!