Tariff fears drive Copper to record in classic commodity fifth-wave extension

US Copper prices surged to fresh record highs, driven by rising expectations that President Donald Trump may soon impose tariffs on copper imports.

Traders are responding to signals that the Commerce Department’s review—ordered by Trump in February—is advancing quickly, and that a decision, possibly imposing tariffs of up to 25%, could be announced within weeks.

The surge reflects not only speculative buying but also a defensive scramble as traders and manufacturers brace for supply disruptions. A key driver of the move is fear, with the current rally taking the form of a classic fifth-wave extension seen in commodity markets—when panic buying exacerbates already tight conditions.

Technically, the uptrend from January low at 3.9667 is now in its final leg of a five-wave sequence. While there may still be some upside left, strong resistance lies ahead.

Despite the bullish momentum, Copper should soon face strong resistance soon. Two key projection levels—5.538 (161.8% of the 4.1568 to 4.8168 move from 4.4702) and 5.6298 (100% projection of 3.5021 to 5.1650 from 3.9667)—form a crucial zone that should cap the rally.