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USD/JPY’s fall from 158.86 extended lower last week but lost momentum after hitting 38.2% retracement of 139.57 to 158.86 at 151.49. Initial bias stays neutral this week first. On the upside, firm break of 153.70 resistance will retain near term bullishness, and turn bas back to the upside for retesting 158.86. However, sustained trading below 151.49 will suggest that whole rise from 139.57 has completed, and bring deeper fall to 61.8% retracement at 146.32 next.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 161.94 are seen as a corrective pattern to rise from 102.58 (2021 low). In case of another fall, strong support should be seen from 38.2% retracement of 102.58 to 161.94 at 139.26 to bring rebound. However, sustained break of 139.26 would open up deeper medium term decline to 61.8% retracement at 125.25.
In the long term picture, it’s still early to conclude that up trend from 75.56 (2011 low) has completed. A medium term corrective phase should have commenced, with risk of deep correction towards 55 M EMA (now at 136.50).
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