What To Expect From Friday’s Jobs Report

The U.S. economy likely closed out 2024 by adding jobs steadily, continuing the trend of recent months.

A report on the labor market due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Friday will likely show that the U.S. economy added 153,000 jobs in December, according to the consensus forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg Finance, as reported by Wells Fargo Economics. That would be fewer than the 227,000 jobs added in December and a little above the 143,000 jobs added on average for each of the past six months. The forecasters expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 4.2%, which is relatively low by historical standards.

That pace of job creation is a slowdown from earlier in the post-pandemic era when workers were in much higher demand and the economy rebounded from the COVID-19 recession. High borrowing costs for loans—a result of the Federal Reserve’s campaign of interest rate hikes meant to curb inflation since 2022—have discouraged borrowing and spending and thrown some sand in the gears of the job market.

What’s Ahead for the Job Market?

Some economists expect the job market to bounce back in 2025, while others predict a continued slowdown.

Economic predictions always come with a grain of salt, and perhaps more so this year, given the uncertainties about the policies of the second Trump administration. The course of the job market could hinge on the extent to which Trump implements tariffs on foreign trade or imposes tax cuts for corporations among other major policy shifts he promised on the campaign trail.

For now, though, economists see the job market as stable for workers: employers aren’t hiring a ton, but they aren’t starting mass layoffs either.

“Employers, scarred by the post-pandemic labor shortage and aware that the days of ample labor supply are likely over, tell me they don’t want to get caught short workers again,” Thomas Barkin, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said in a speech Friday. “As a result, while cautious employers are allowing headcount to drift downward through attrition and reduced hiring, they are slow to reduce staff. The layoff rate remains near historic lows. A low hiring, low firing labor market is still a healthy one.”