XRP Price Faces Two Possible Outcomes, and One of Them the Community Definitely Won’t Like

The XRP price is approaching a major make-or-break moment again, and this time the outcome looks especially important. 

Crypto analyst CasiTrades shared a detailed chart showing that everything now comes down to one level: $2.04. Whether XRP bounces or breaks here will shape the next phase of the market.

XRP Price Heads Toward a Crucial Support Retest

After bouncing off the 0.618 local retracement, XRP showed a bit of strength and pushed higher. That move helped reset sentiment, but CasiTrades warns it doesn’t mean the trend has flipped yet. The real test is still ahead.

The $2.04 macro 0.5 Fibonacci level has been the anchor of this entire correction. XRP spent weeks battling around it earlier in the cycle, and now the XRP price is on its way back for a retest. 

According to the Casi, the market needs to flip this line into confirmed support for any bullish structure to hold. In other words, this level will decide the next chapter.

Scenario 1: XRP Bounce Toward $2.65 and a New Bullish Wave

If the XRP price holds $2.04, the bullish path opens up quickly. CasiTrades expects a move back into the $2.41 region, which has acted as a strong ceiling during the correction. 

A clean breakout above that level would confirm a shift in market structure and signal that the macro low might already be in.

From there, the XRP price could climb toward $2.65, and if momentum picks up, the larger targets $7 to $10, as outlined by the analyst, come back into play. In this scenario, the green wave outlines a new bullish trend forming with the potential for a big macro push.

Scenario 2: A Drop to $1.64 Before the Real Rally

The bearish scenario is the one most holders don’t want to hear, but CasiTrades says it’s very much on the table. 

If the XRP price fails to protect $2.04, the price would likely return to $1.64, which lines up with the macro 0.618 retracement.

That move would complete the corrective structure shown in the chart and clear out the remaining liquidity pockets. The good news is that even this bearish outcome still sets the stage for a strong macro Wave 3 rally afterward, but only once that lower level is tested.

Read Also: Hidden Ripple Supply Squeeze Exposed: Next XRP Price Surge Seems Close

What’s Next for XRP?

Everything now depends on how XRP reacts around $2.04. A strong bounce at this level may provoke a fresh run, while a breakdown might force the XRP price into another sharp drop before a larger move materializes. In either event, this retest is likely to set the tone for how XRP lands in 2026.

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