AI Superpowers: China, Silicon Valley, and the New World Order
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THE NEW YORK TIMES, USA TODAY, AND WALL STREET JOURNAL BESTSELLER
Dr. Kai-Fu Lee – one of the world’s most respected experts on AI and China – reveals that China has suddenly caught up to the US at an astonishingly rapid and unexpected pace.
In AI Superpowers, Kai-fu Lee argues powerfully that because of these unprecedented developments in AI, dramatic changes will be happening much sooner than many of us expected. Indeed, as the US-Sino AI competition begins to heat up, Lee urges the US and China to both accept and to embrace the great responsibilities that come with significant technological power. Most experts already say that AI will have a devastating impact on blue-collar jobs. But Lee predicts that Chinese and American AI will have a strong impact on white-collar jobs as well. Is universal basic income the solution? In Lee’s opinion, probably not. But he provides a clear description of which jobs will be affected and how soon, which jobs can be enhanced with AI, and most importantly, how we can provide solutions to some of the most profound changes in human history that are coming soon.
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Customers find the book very valuable, enjoyable, and thrilling. They appreciate the deeper understanding of how China Inc. works. Readers describe the writing quality as well-written, personal, and concise. They also find the narrative interesting and entertaining.
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Puneet S. Lamba –
The AI Revolution
Lee’s predictions are unsettling and at first. Being an American citizen I found myself getting defensive about how rosy the picture Lee paints looks for China. But the author patiently and fairly elaborates on why his forecast is what it is. A few chapters in I found myself gradually coming around to seeing the validity of his arguments.The China AdvantageApart from Lee’s fondness for the word “juggernaut”, the book is well-written and informative. Having worked in China, I have first-hand experience of how they’ve modernized themselves almost overnight to become the envy of the world. I have had the pleasure of traveling on their fast trains, e.g. the one connecting Shanghai to Hangzhou (a technology hub and home to the Chinese e-Commerce “juggernaut” Alibaba), and they are second to none. After visiting China, it is embarrassing to return to Boston and ride the T, as the Greater Boston transit system is known.Perhaps not unlike other developing nations, many in China went straight from cash to mobile payments, entirely skipping over credit/debit cards. By contrast, mobile payments are barely used in the US because everyone is already accustomed to credit cards which offer fraud protection. Eventually, the concept of fraud protection and fees is sure to reach the world of mobile payments. Until then, the huge influx of mobile payment data is giving China a heavy advantage on the AI front since AI gorges itself on data just as a Hummer guzzles gas.Small businesses didn’t have POS systems and avoided credit card fees, but they do have smartphones. Mobile payment apps move money directly between accounts without charging fees in most cases. That China has no qualms regarding individual privacy relative to the first-world comes up rather late in Lee’s discussion and isn’t addressed head-on. The autocratic system that allows China to freely experiment with technologies like facial recognition without as much as a murmur from their one billion-plus population is more or less given a free pass by Lee.I hate to be so blunt, but let us recall that China was the only country in the world that allowed the legal sale of ivory until they finally put an end to it in 2017, kicking and screaming some would say. Anything that makes money is generally allowed in China. Such a system cannot prosper in the long term. But before we adopt a holier than thou attitude towards China, we will do well to recall the history of the US and other so-called developed nations living in glass houses.Big GovernmentAs Lee points out, Obama was relentlessly criticized for one failed investment with Solyndra as part of his administration’s attempt to support renewable energy projects. Chinese leaders don’t have to worry about such political ramifications and can forge ahead with their plans unencumbered. That’s what makes the moral argument against China’s autocratic system such a non-starter. Perhaps that is why Lee never fully ventures there.A clear distinction between the entrepreneurial environments in the US and China is the incessant reminder by Lee that as far as China is concerned government support is a critically necessary pillar. That is obviously not the case in the US. That dependence implies that even a minor instability in government could derail China’s innovation train. Lee credits the government for enabling entrepreneurs but downplays the negative aspects of doing business in an autocratic environment wherein criticizing the government can have grave consequences, as seen recently with the disappearance of Jack Ma.But it’s not all bad. As Lee explains, the Chinese political system involves competition among lower ranks for promotion. And the way to get promoted is to succeed at implementing the goals set by the central government. In some ways, it sounds more promising than the US system where often whoever can spend the most money on campaigning is almost guaranteed a win. Naysayers will point to the folly of having the public sector intervening in the private sector. But in China that intervention seems to have turbo-charged the migration from a manufacturing economy to an internet economyLee explains that whereas the Silicon Valley model is to build an ecosystem wherein the startup provides an internet-based layer on top of existing brick and mortar logistics, the Chinese model is more heavyweight, or what I prefer to call full-stack, wherein they reduce outsourcing as much as possible in order to control costs. However, as a result, there’s no core-competency and every startup is eventually going to either die or become a monopolistic behemoth. There’s no scope for many competent companies to collaborate.This is the reason why US companies like Google, Twitter, Yelp, Uber, Facebook, WhatsApp, and others haven’t succeeded in getting a foothold in China. And although Alibaba, Tencent, WeChat, and others have failed even more miserably to make a dent in the US, they have spread their tentacles quite successfully in many other parts of the world, especially in Asia and Africa.The real point of inflection will be when a Chinese startup makes inroads into the US market. So far, TikTok’s success in the US has been a rare example of this. However, there are many more like TikTok waiting in the wings. Chinese researchers are devouring the latest AI research publications and are willing to adapt their apps to each market. In contrast, US app makers prefer to go with a one-size-fits-all approach that doesn’t always work in non-US markets.Killing the CompetitionThe model in India has similarities with China in that a few companies like Tata, Birla, Mahindra, Reliance, etc. have been allowed to become too big. Airbnb’s Chinese rival Tujia has gone beyond the Airbnb model and expanded into the rental properties business which blurs the line between a hotel and a room in a house. The charm of staying at a unique spot is lost as is the entire point of the business model. It’s a sledgehammer approach to business that I find not very attractive. But I do thank Lee for laying it out so clearly for us to understand and appreciate.Overall, Lee is far too bullish on China’s prospects. If you thought work-life balance is poor in the US, it’s much worse in China and is reminiscent of Japan during the post-World War II rebuilding years. We all know how the Japan story developed. And by that measure, China should not be counting its chickens just yet.EpiphanyChapter 7, where Lee talks about his cancer diagnosis and the resulting epiphany regarding the meaning of life, felt a bit over the top and hyperbolic. I waited patiently for him to return to his core competency of AI. The blueprint for co-existence with AI that follows from Lee’s cancer-induced epiphany is to let AI do the thinking and let humans do the loving, with the goal of developing a society with more empathy. Not an entirely easy pill to swallow.Lee oversimplifies the value of human interaction and tries to boil it down to one word, i.e. love. But human interaction is about a lot more than just love. When I talk to friends and family I want them to be opinionated, challenge my viewpoint, teach me something new, make me laugh, gain my respect. I am not going to have such an interaction with a machine, at least not any time soon. Lee seems to be blind to all this.However, I do agree with the author’s vision that the material abundance that would result from harnessing AI/ML should be used to spread love, compassion, and a minimum standard of life for all inhabitants of this wonderful planet we call Earth.Kai-Fu Lee splits the current job market into four quadrants and labels them as safe, human veneer, slow creep, and the danger zone. In the “human veneer” quadrant, for example, he suggests placing doctors with their title “compassionate caregivers”, since their future job will be to compassionately deliver the diagnosis produced by AI. I don’t know about you, but I’m not paying extra for the compassionate delivery if I can save a few bucks and just grab the print out and proceed to my next appointment.The subsequent chapters (8 and 9) are just more of the same and no more discussion of AI per se. But chapters 1-6 make the book well worth reading.
A. Menon –
overview of the competitive landscape of large cap tech in the world of big data
AI Superpowers is well worth the read for anyone interested in the competitive landscape of AI as it pertains to the US and China. The book was written prior to the flairing up of trade frictions between the two countries and thus is more idealistic in tone than perhaps it would be if re-written today but the ideas in the book remain relevant. The author is former head of Google China and an expert in machine learning. He has worked throughout silicon valley and now focuses on venture capital investing in China and so his perspective is broad and well informed.The author focuses on the evolution of AI techniques from when he was doing his doctorate in the field several decades ago. He discusses how recent results from DeepMind and techniques in deep learning have catalyzed a new era for big data analytics and their broad use by tech companies. The author spends time discussing the change in nature of the field from excellence transitioning from the group with the brightest minds to the group with the most data. This has been a consequence of the relative improvement in computation power to the relative improvements of proprietary algorithms. Furthermore the author describes the quick learning ascent of the domestic Chinese academic expertise. The author discusses in a world of data how the AI revolution might unfold and discusses how the culture of privacy of data will be the determinant of relative excellence. The consequence of this in his mind is that Europe will remain a laggard as it is substantially more focused on data privacy, the US is in the middle but increasingly concerned on the influence of large cap tech, while in China it is entirely pragmatic and culturally unconcerned. At first glance this is very true and so the ability to analyze data has the lowest barriers in China and it is hard to see any way for that not to continue. Whether that will lead to an optimal outcome remains a critical concern though as the reasons for concern on privacy and future welfare are not unrelated. The author spends a lot of time discussing the improvements in the competitive landscape in China from it being a copycat corporate culture to it being a center for innovation. Embedded in this description one can see the deep issues that plague US China relationships. In particular, intellectual property rights are just not regulated in the same fashion as elsewhere and so the corporate cultures are not in line with IP protection. This is not an explicit point but one can infer these issues from the authors description. The author describes how now the Entrepreneurial class in China is on par in many respects with the US and as a consequence the access to data will lead to a competitive advantage.The author then switches gears and takes the book to a very personal level and his battle with cancer. In particular the author discusses the consequences of AI technology on labor and capital and he is not an optimist at this point. He sees it far from clear that these labor saving technologies will enable other forms of employment. He then discusses in his battle with cancer how the human condition requires more than optimized algorithms to feel full and human contact will always have a deep place in forming the bonds of society. He discusses some of his epiphanies from his time in the monastery. Though all of this is undoubtedly true, the consequences of his labor destructive projections make it hard to have an inclusive society. The author discusses some tech living wage concepts as well as other partial solutions but this part of the book is incomplete.For an overview of the large cap tech space in the US and China and the evolving and differing cultures, this book is excellent. It gives food for thought about the competitive landscape for data and the differing cultures of data as well as the leveling of the playing field for how to analyze data from advances last decade. The author also discusses the evolution of the Chinese entrepreneurial class and how it is no longer in copycat phase but instead focused on real innovation. The book discusses a lot and the author communicates clearly on a lot of big idea, as a book of ideas on solutions to some of the emergent problems I think the book is unconvincing but it is written from a very strong personal standpoint that one has to respect. Worth the read.
Luis Antonio –
Da una visión muy amplia del la historia y contexto de la IA en China y su comparativo contra los Estados Unidos. Es un libro esencial para aquellos que buscan desmitificar la IA y empezar a conocer todas las aristas del tema, incluyendo el laboral y humano. Una joya¡!
Klaus –
Het boek wordt verkocht als nieuw maar is duidelijk tweedehands, gebruikerssporen, beschadigingen en een parfum lucht.
Ram –
This book envisages about multiplying world economy in a span of 10 years.This book blew my mind.My next book on reading list is AI 2041.
Luc –
Kai-Fu Lee spends the first half of his book to explain the differences between Tech leaders and entrepreneurs in the US and in China, and why the latter will win the AI war.And then in the second half he explains why all these ambitions to prevail are worthless, and how AI should just be a tool serving a humanity having completely changed its values from material success to « love and be loved ».All of this is based on the authorâs personal life and that is what makes it convincing.
Eduardo Chiba –
This book called my attention from the beginning. It was a hard work not read it in one single shot. Yet, however, I forced myself to read chapter by chapter, research the topics discussed more frofundly and mountaing some conclusions applicable to my reality. So rich in details!AI superpowers indeed combines theory, empiric observation and study of cases (Didi Chuxing, Meituan and WeChat) in a smoothly cadency. Dr. Kai Fu Lee made a wonderful job sharing how personal events tailored his interesting for AI applicable to human beings. He really made a limonade from the limons that life provides to him.The spotlight of the book, in my humble opinion, is how the author predicts the future of the world based on artificial intelligence and why China is can succeed.